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Bitcoin: Her er hvorfor utløpet 13. november kan være en dud-begivenhet

Bitcoins [BTC] -pris registrerte sin høyeste verdi i 2020 på $ 16177 i dag, den 12. november. Selv om kryptokurrencyens pris hadde falt under $ 16k ved pressetiden, har derivatmarkedet understreket den aktive naturen til handelsmennene som sikter mot en høyere pris når Q4 i 2020 kulminerer.

Da verdien av Bitcoin ble verdsatt til $ 16 000, var avvikling på BitMEX-utveksling betydelig. De korte likvidasjonene hjalp verdien av den digitale eiendelen til å øke dramatisk på en time, men det var ikke mye volum for å støtte prisen til denne verdien.

Tvert imot, selgerne i markedet tok dette som en passende tid til å tjene penger, og de solgte sine BTC-er. Prisen på krypto-aktiva kollapset snart under $ 16k.

Ved pressetiden var de totale daglige likvidasjonene $ 23 millioner, hvor kjøpslikvidasjonene var verdt $ 15 millioner og de solgte likvidasjonene var verdt $ 7,8 millioner.

Her er det verdt å merke seg at BTC ikke hadde nådd det ovennevnte prisnivået siden 2018, og det kan ta noen flere tester for å holde en verdi over dette nivået.

I mellomtiden så Opsjonsmarkedet at Puts gikk foran samtaler, noe som betyr at markedet potensielt forbereder seg på å selge BTC i fremtiden. Med en streik på 19,4 tusen forut for andre, syntes handelsmennenes forventninger å være klare.

Put / Call-forholdet kom nærmere 0,7, et tall som ville gjøre skjebnen til BTC-opsjonene til en baisse. Ved pressetiden ble forholdet notert til 0,67, et resultat av kryptovalutaens plutselige prisbevegelse.

Ettersom markedet spenner for en ny oppkjøring over $ 16k, har novemberkontraktene økt. I følge Skew utløper totalt 135,3 000 BTC-opsjonskontrakter denne måneden. Den første store delen av denne utløpet vil være vitne til 13. november, en dag da 35,1K BTC-opsjonskontrakter er satt til å utløpe. Imidlertid, når vi ser på motstanden på $ 16 000 og støtten på $ 15,5 000, kan utløpet vise seg å være en dud-hendelse.

Bitcoin Circuit Optionen Open Interest auf Deribit nach kurzem Verfall um 50% reduziert

Bitcoin Options gewinnt an Zugkraft, da neue Derivatebörsen verbesserte Produkte hinzufügen, um mehr Nutzer anzuziehen. Eine dieser Börsen ist Deribit, eine Börse, die den Handel mit Bitcoin-Optionen anbietet. Die Börse verzeichnete einen Verlust beim Open Interest nach dessen Ablauf im Dezember von $489 Millionen auf $202 Millionen.

Der BTC-Optionskontrakt auf Deribit läuft jeden Freitag um 8:00 UTC aus. Einen Tag vor dem jüngsten Verfall, dem 26. Dezember, erreichte das Open Interest einen Höchststand von $502 Millionen. Nach dem Verfallsdatum brach das Open Interest auf $202 Millionen ein, ein Rückgang von 59%.

Der Verlust an Open Interest zeigt sich auch in der Kauf/Verkaufsquote, die sich am 27. Dezember auf 35,6% [Kauf]/50,6 [Verkauf] drehte. Das Volumen der BTC-Optionen an der Deribit-Börse hat sich durch den Verfall ebenfalls auf magere $18,2 Millionen von einem Dezember-Hoch von $81,2 Millionen reduziert.

Vorherige Bitcoin Circuit OI-Rückstellungen

Interessant ist hier die Beobachtung, dass mit dem Ablauf des 27. September auch das Bitcoin Circuit Open Interest um ca. 50% reduziert wurde. Am letzten Freitag im September ging auch das Open Interest von einem Hoch von ~656 Millionen Dollar am 24. September auf $301 Millionen am 27. September zurück.

Bitcoin Circuit Google Docs

Zum Jahresende werden kurzfristige Optionen schnell abgewickelt. Die Optionen für 2020 stapeln sich jedoch. Die am 27. März 2020 auslaufende Option hat einen enormen Anstieg des Open Interest auf über 13.000 BTC gezeigt. Der OI vom März 2020 wird sicherlich einen weiteren Anstieg erleben, der sich als astronomisch erweisen könnte, da die Halbierung von Bitcoin im März 2020 stattfinden wird. Die Erzählung über die Halbierung ist, dass der Preis von BTC aufgrund der implizierten Knappheit im Nachhinein steigt.

Auf der Liste der neuen Derivateplattformen haben Deribit, FTX und Bybit mit ihren Produkten viel Lärm gemacht. Mit der Einführung von Bakkt gibt es einen Wettbewerb um die Einführung neuer Produkte wie Optionen, Futures, etc. Die CME hatte vor kurzem angekündigt, dass sie den Handel mit Bitcoin-Optionen einführen wird, woraufhin Bakkt ein ähnliches Produkt für BTC ankündigte und dasselbe einführte.

Investing in crypto currencies: The ICO Strategy

An ICO is in parts comparable to an initial issue of securities on a stock exchange. The word ICO stands for Initial Coin Offering. An ICO is an opportunity to acquire money for projects in the Blockchain ecosystem via crowdfunding. Those who invest money in this project receive tokens of the planned crypto currency in exchange – which, as soon as the supported project has established itself, can certainly pay off – at least that’s hope.

What is an Bitcoin loophole?

This means that money that comes from an ICO usually goes to the Bitcoin loophole developers. In the best case scenario, it should be used to further develop the crypto currency or to make it ready for the market in the first place. This makes the Bitcoin loophole as attractive as it is dangerous.

Risk analysis: ICO in the time horizon
Let’s look at the ICO from an investment perspective. Of course, there are other reasons to invest in a new crypto currency, but here we only consider the investment case.

First of all, it should be noted that you usually acquire the right to something from the ICO that does not really exist yet. You buy a token, which is usually distributed after the end of the ICO, for example via a protocol like Ethereum. When the ICO is finished, the developer can inform his supporters that the tokens will be transferred soon. So everyone creates an Ethereum Wallet and receives a credit for the purchased coins.

Even if you get the coins well written, you should be aware that it is still only a “number”. A real equivalent does not exist at this time yet. And the coins can rarely be used in the early phase.

Conclusion: First of all, we only receive a few coins that no one may know, that have no equivalent value and that are not even ready for use.

Those who invest in the news spy should therefore have two qualities

1. frustration tolerance like seen here:
Many investments promise the new disruptive revolution in various areas, but not all of them will survive. Often enough, the current hype is compared with that of the news spy Internet at the end of the 90s. Because even then the enthusiasm was huge, the innovativeness high and everyone sensed the imminent wealth. Enthusiasm quickly came to an end when many of the once hyped companies went bankrupt. This can also happen with blockchain start-ups. Remember: You are investing in something unreal, new, unknown. Assume that in the worst case you will suffer a total loss. Calculate your willingness to pay accordingly.

2. patience
As already mentioned, you are investing in something that you cannot use today, tomorrow and possibly this year. Especially because you are an investor in the early phase of a crypto currency, you usually have higher return potential than with established currencies, but the loss potential is also much greater. And the road to wealth can become a dry spell. Invest only the money that you can easily do without. Because you won’t see it again so quickly. The money that flows to the developers is intended for the development of the product. And that can take a long time, so be aware that ICO’s is a long-term strategy and not a quick profit.

But how do you find the right ICO?
This is not easy, because ICO’s are one of the least structured investment vehicles for crypto currencies. You can’t just open a stock exchange on your smartphone that allows you to swap currency pairs back and forth. Instead, you have to find your way around a publisher’s individual website and transfer BTC or often ETH to a foreign company.

Each ICO is a new task and should be thoroughly analyzed. A critical point of view will pay off in the long run: Is the publisher only interested in transferring an existing model to a blockchain technology or does the project offer real added value that can achieve measurable results?

Since it has to be estimated how the project will develop in the future, the team is also decisive: the developers should feel the fire to drive the project forward.

The task is to condense a huge amount of information about the project into a few facts that are relevant for decision-making. This costs a lot of time, but reduces the risk of blindly investing in new projects and running into the knife of the black sheep – who, unfortunately, are increasingly taking the floor.